FRANK STEPHENSON
THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY
I will admit I didn’t know much about Frank or his work before this talk. I found it interesting to hear about his career for car companies such as McLaren, Maserati and Ferrari and all of the different cars he had designed. I particularly found his references to biomimicry intriguing and was something I hadn’t considered in relation to cars. I found the sketches of the Mini beside a sketch of a bulldog particularly intriguing. You can see how he translated the features of this animal into the shape of the car and mix it with the traditional mini design to create something new yet familiar. His point that ‘Nature always has the answers.
Who knows. eVTOLs might make this a safer and more reliable mode of transport and will hopefully bring the price down. When talking about the future of transport this would not have been the first thing that I would have considered. I’m not sure that this is the real future but I’m sure that this could be a small part of it.
D&T RESEARCH
Frank touched upon earlier methods of commercial air travel. I particularly found his reference to aircraft such as the Boeing 747 and the Concorde interesting. These were perfect examples of brilliant innovations in technology that were good in a certain time period and situation but that no longer fit into our society’s needs.
The Boeing 747 was the largest airliner of its time when it first flew back in 1969. This was a time when petrol was cheaper and airlines aimed to carry as many passengers for the cheapest price. This was technically at the time more fuel efficient than the alternatives, carrying more passengers at a lower cost per seat. At a time of innovation in Jet travel that is exactly what we needed. As time has advanced and engines have become more efficient, we no longer have the need for a fuel hungry 4 engine jet. Aircraft like the Boeing 787 can comfortably seat as many passengers with only two engines. Aircraft safety has also advanced beyond the need for 4 engines, with most modern jets able to fly with only one engine in the event of emergency. Only a few airlines still operate 747 airliners, maybe just out of nostalgia, and most of the aircraft still flying are cargo variants of the aircraft. The final 747 was built in January 2023.
The Concorde was an even better example of this. Concorde was born out of the desire to transport people quickly across the Atlantic ocean to better connect Europe to North America. It could travel at the speed of sound and fly from London to New York in under 3 hours. Even with today’s most efficient airliners this journey still takes over 8 hours. This speed came at a cost, high fuel usage and insanely expensive ticket prices. While innovative, this aircraft was never the transport for the future. It was a great display of technological advancement but ended up being used by the rich and not accessible to the masses. The jet was retired in 2003 due to increasing operating costs and a crash that sealed its fate. Sustainability was not much of a concern back then but if it was, this should never have made it off the ground.
This then leads on to transport in the future. Commercial airliners have not radically changed since their introduction. Frank showed a picture of blended wing aircraft. This is when the aircraft fuselage is blended into the wing of the aircraft, maximising space allowing more passengers to be transported while retaining efficiency. The air foil shaped body allows the entire body to generate lift which helps to reduce fuel consumption by at least 10%. One example in development by Bombardier, the EcoJet, aims to reduce carbon emissions by as much as 50% although this is only a small business jet variant. While alternative fuels or engines are likely the solution to many of air transports problems, reducing emissions that are needed no matter the type of fuel it will help reduce overall pollution and harm to the environment.
Obviously Frank believes eVTOLs are going to play a part in our future. That raises the question of whether electric aircraft can exist on a more commercial level. The main issue regarding the switch to electric aircraft is weight. Looking further into this the bigger issue for aircraft seems to be less of the weight, but more of where the batteries would be stored in order to not affect the centre of gravity. Despite these issues there are examples of electric commercial jets being worked on at the moment, most notably offerings by a company magniX and Eviation.
“The thirty-minute test flight, which would normally consume jet fuel exceeding $300 in cost, used less than six dollars’ worth of electricity” - MagniX CEO Roei Ganzarski
“A small aircraft, like a turbo-prop Cessna Caravan, will use $400 on conventional fuel for a 100-mile flight, but with electricity it'll be between $8-$12, which means much lower costs per flight-hour" - MagniX CEO Roei Ganzarski.
“You build a craft around your propulsion system. Electric means we can have lightweight motors; it allows us to open up the design space." - Eviation's Chief Executive Omer Bar-Yohay
When you compare these costs, it seems reasonable that Airlines will adopt these type of aircraft. There are still around two billion tickets sold each year for flights of under 500 miles, so there is a space in this market for aircraft like this. The Alice boasts 650 miles (1,040km) range flying at 10,000ft (3,000m) at 276mph (440km/h). Possibly taking a chunk out of emissions at the very least. 80% of aviation’s emissions come from flights longer than 1000 miles which is simply a distance no electric aircraft could fly yet. The problem is simply battery size.
“With batteries that are 30 times more efficient and energy-dense than they are today, it would only be possible to fly an A320 airliner for a fifth of its range with just half of its payload” - AirBus Chief Technology Officer, Grazia Vittadinim
This really puts it into perspective. We can make a dent with smaller short-range flights but the battery technology is simply not there to allow for anything more at the moment. Even optimistic cases prove it might not be the answer as it seems to be with cars.
USEFUL LINKS
BOMBARDIER ECOJET INFORMATION
https://bombardier.com/en/media/news/bombardier-ramps-second-test-phase-ecojet-research-project-sees-18-foot-wide-prototype
MAGNIX WEBSITE WITH INFORMATION ON EXPERIMENTAL ELECTRIC AIRCRAFT
https://www.magnix.aero
BBC ARTICLE ON ELECTRIC AIRCRAFT AND THE PROBLEMS WITH SCALABILITY
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48630656